My ten-year old daughter received a postcard these...

My ten-year old daughter received a postcard these days. It was sent by a a friend of her’s, who is currently on vacation in Northern Italy. The card read:

Dear Florentina,
we are on vacation and it is very nice. But, admittedly, it is also very hot.
Best wishes, Carla*

Now, this is a somewhat compelling analysis. It is hot, much hotter than usual, especially in the Mediterraen area, but also up here in Austria. Maybe it’s just an exceptional year adding to a rising trend, but then, maybe not. More probably when it comes to climate change and its local effects, we have to expect non-linearities, or in the more mundane language of economics: we have to expect non-linear local and regional shocks to accompany the somewhat linear trends of average temperature. In general heterodox economists are well-equipped to do so, however, there remains the peculiar question, whether and to what extent those in power will listen to us renegade experts (or, alternatively, to the people in the naturals sciences saying quite similar things).

Indeed the Mediterranean sea could emergence as a large-scale example for such a strong local effect as it could well transform into a hot tub in future summer periods (see here for some data and plots on this), because of its basin-like character. As someone, who is travelling into the Mediterrenean area on a close to annual basis for about thirty years know, I also have to admit that local impacts of climate change are strongly visible in some places for some time now. Especially the characteristic and beautiful pine forests, that can be often found close to the sea, struggle everywhere with increasing heat and humidity.

Coming back to Carla’s letter, we also find that the temperatures found in Northern Italy when I was a ten-year old are now found in Austria, even close to the Alps. City gardeners in my home town have recently proposed to react and begin substituting traditionally planted trees with alternatives imported from Italy and Spain. While that sounds smart to me, I wonder where Italians and Spaniards will get their substitutes from? And doesn’t such adaption seem nonetheless cynical when moving our perspective to those places, mostly located in the Global South, that are even more exposed to shifting climate conditions and that lack financial and technical means to conceptualize adaption strategies?

Maybe the increasing visibility of climate change will make its massive consequences more transparent to many and, hence, faciliate more radical changes – in any case, late is better than never. For now, I simply hope that Clara will be able to enjoy the remainder of her vacation.

Best,

Jakob

• While my daugher’s name truly is Florentina (much to the joy of the people in/from Tuscany ;-), I took the liberty to substitute her friend’s true name with an alias.

PS: The Heterodox Economics Directory in its 7th edition is finally out and published. Many thanks to all readers and friends, who supplied suggestions and corrections. I will probably add a little more information in one of the upcoming Newsletters.